What does the future of energy look like?

As one of the largest grid operators in the Netherlands, Enexis plays a crucial role in the energy transition. The organisation manages the electricity and gas networks for millions of households and businesses. In times of fundamental change in the energy market due to sustainability efforts, decentralisation, and shifting consumer behaviour, the following question is more urgent than ever: what will the energy system of the future look like, and how do you prepare for it?

The challenge
The energy world is facing unprecedented transformations. The rise of solar panels, heat pumps and electric vehicles is changing the way energy is generated, stored and consumed. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, climate targets and increasing grid congestion are adding further complexity.

Together with Six Fingers, Enexis wanted to gain insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the energy system in the coming years, and how both the energy grid and society can be prepared for them.

By mapping the dominant logic of the energy market, we identified the beliefs and assumptions that might be holding back innovation. We then explored possible futures through trend research. Two key uncertainties proved decisive: first, how is power over energy distributed? Will it remain concentrated within powerful blocs, or will energy become increasingly democratised? And second, how accessible will the energy transition be for consumers? Will an eco-elite emerge that can afford everything, or will there be inclusivity, with everyone sharing in the benefits?

The insight
Based on these key uncertainties, we developed four contrasting future scenarios. Each scenario paints a realistic yet distinctive picture of the world in which Enexis operates, with its own dynamics, challenges and opportunities.

One striking lesson emerged in hindsight. One scenario described a future marked by widespread energy poverty. While developing, we thought this scenario might be overly pessimistic and unlikely ever to become reality. The energy crisis of recent years has shown just how valuable it was to analyse this scenario regardless. Precisely because it had been considered in advance, it became possible to anticipate more quickly when the first signals began to appear.