We’re all familiar with the stories of companies like Kodak and Blockbuster. They were overtaken by challengers who offered the same value but made it more accessible and removed frustrations for consumers. Startups that, at first, seemed too small to change the market but ultimately caused the downfall of these organizations. Why do large companies fail while small startups disrupt the market? Blockbuster and Kodak, like everyone else, had access to key transformative insights but chose to wait rather than take action.
Our failure to recognize the signs of change in time stems from a fundamental human bias: we are linear thinkers. We immediately notice major changes but struggle to see and grasp slow transformations. Early signals are often dismissed as noise or irrelevant anomalies. Most of the time, they go unnoticed because they arise in areas organizations aren’t paying attention to.
Compare this to the vision of humans versus dragonflies. Insect eyes are compound eyes, also known as faceted eyes. These are made up of thousands of individual visual units, called ommatidia—sometimes as many as 30,000. Each unit has its own lens and captures a tiny part of the world. Together, these units create a mosaic-like image of the world.
Humans, by contrast, always look in a single direction with their eyes. If we want to see what’s behind us, we need to turn our heads. Insects, thanks to their rounded eyes full of units pointing in all directions, see their entire surroundings. That’s why a dragonfly almost always sees you coming, no matter which direction you approach from.
Change rarely announces itself in an obvious way. These are often referred to as weak signals. Change starts in niche markets or marginal innovations. Over time, these seemingly insignificant developments gain momentum and eventually reach a tipping point where their impact becomes undeniable. By then, it’s often too late for established players to adapt quickly. Panic-driven innovation leads to rushed decisions, which tend to favor the simplest—and least distinctive—solutions.
Large organizations often have a narrow focus and miss critical signals. Like a dragonfly, they need to broaden their field of vision, or they’ll only notice signs of change when it’s too late. That’s why it’s crucial to have a clear view not just of your own market but also of adjacent markets and technologies that could cause disruption. And don’t ignore weak signals, even if they don’t seem threatening right now.
Take the banking sector. Shifts have been happening for years due to so-called fintech. While the market hasn’t yet seen a major upheaval, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Look at challengers like Revolut. Originally designed as a bank for travelers frequently dealing with foreign currencies, it’s now actively working to manage its customers’ salaries. That’s how you become your customers’ primary bank. Or take Starlink, still underestimated by many as an internet provider. In 2024, it grew its data exchange volume by 330% compared to the previous year. In contrast, “regular” internet traffic grew by just 17.8%. Add to this the increasing sabotage of internet cables, and Starlink becomes a serious contender for revolutionizing connectivity.
In short, look like a dragonfly. Make sure you have a wide view of the system you’re a part of. Identify the developments that could have an impact, no matter how distant they may seem. Build your own radar system. That way, you’ll recognize change before the rest, allowing you to anticipate and make well-informed decisions in time.
Author: Bart van Leeuwen