Traditional forms of strategy development carry a high degree of arrogance. The underlying assumption is that there is a role to play in the future and, moreover, that the company will even exist at that time. The existing organization and sector are central, and the strategy is stretched into the future. This is fine, of course, if the current role remains relevant and the existing dominant logic still holds true. Thus, the strategy is, as it is elegantly put, recalibrated.
However, this static way of working creates a significant problem when the future demands a new perspective. We live in a time where systems increasingly influence each other in non-linear ways. For example, nitrogen levels have a significant impact on housing construction, an issue that wasn’t considered ten years ago in static strategy formulation. Geopolitical pressures are prompting urban areas in various countries to become self-sufficient, which will affect food supply methods. The non-linear influences between sectors, technologies, societal structures, and social issues call for exploration and the outlining of potential scenarios, rendering static strategy formulation meaningless.
The world is changing rapidly, and multiple scenarios are possible. What is certain is that no one knows which scenario will materialize, but systematically exploring them provides significant value in the form of rich insights. By envisioning multiple futures and determining which roles will be relevant, these insights can be further enriched. The more insights you gain, the better you can chart the course for your organization. And the more opportunities and changes you will notice along the way. It’s no coincidence that strategic foresight is becoming increasingly valuable.
A high level of adaptive capacity is crucial in sectors where non-linear influences are prominent. Ultimately, it’s not about the strategy chosen, but about the adaptive capacity. The ability to see and react quickly is essential to stay ahead and not be left behind.
How far and fast can you jump?
Author: Rob Adams