Adaptive capability is crucial. As humans, we operate under the assumption of a predictable and controllable world, a risky assumption as demonstrated by chaos theory.
In 1961, American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz worked on a computer model at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model aimed to make predictions about the atmosphere and, consequently, the weather. During simulations, he noticed deviations and realized that the model yielded different outcomes each time. His initial thought, naturally, was that the computer model might be flawed, as humans, after all, aim to explain everything. However, his assumptions proved to be wrong.
Being a mathematician, he could thoroughly examine the outcome variations himself and discovered that the deviations resulted from rounding the input data to three decimal numbers instead of the previous six. One would expect a minor deviation, but the reality was quite different. There was a significant deviation from the prior result. He concluded that highly sensitive systems are difficult to predict, especially when the prediction timeframe is further in the future.
Before this research, researchers believed that systems were unpredictable due to their complexity and the insufficient knowledge associated with them. Lorenz demonstrated that this wasn’t the case. Systems within a framework can nonlinearly influence each other. This phenomenon is now known as the chaos theory. Consequently, we cannot predict and plan for everything. According to chaos theory, there are numerous small spaces where change occurs, and it’s impossible to predict the effects of certain events that follow. A small change somewhere in the world can significantly impact our lives.
Organizations and governments often fail to respond adequately to this reality. The prevailing approach is to plan and execute, only revising plans when disaster strikes, not before. Problems are only acknowledged when they manifest. Not only do we believe life is plannable, but we also think that, as humans, we are clever enough to handle any threat. The idea of human superiority and control is extremely dangerous and a significant pitfall.
You must be ready to change your plans at any given moment, as a society, as an organization, and as an individual. This ability is a competence that many organizations lack, yet it is crucial for the future. Without adaptive capability, survival in a world where changes occur rapidly, and major issues present themselves becomes impossible. Adaptive capability is a necessity in the world we inhabit.
Author: Rob Adams